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Turbulence ahead for the EU’s 2040 climate target Turbulence ahead for the EU’s 2040 climate target
Lukasz Kobus/European Union, 2025

Turbulence ahead for the EU’s 2040 climate target

The European Commission is proposing a new emissions reduction target for 2040. However, divisions among member states and within the European Parliament leave a question mark over whether Brussels can build enough support for a new climate goal on the road to net zero in 2050. As some call for more climate ambition and others try to carve out more wiggle room to carry on emitting, the Commission’s roster of climate goals risks fuelling diplomatic battles across Europe.
2040 climate target
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Emissions trading system (ETS)
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Carbon removals (CDR)
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CO2 emissions
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Emissions reduction
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Clean industrial deal
Turbulence ahead for the EU’s 2040 climate target Turbulence ahead for the EU’s 2040 climate target
Lukasz Kobus/European Union, 2025

Turbulence ahead for the EU’s 2040 climate target

The European Commission is proposing a new emissions reduction target for 2040. However, divisions among member states and within the European Parliament leave a question mark over whether Brussels can build enough support for a new climate goal on the road to net zero in 2050. As some call for more climate ambition and others try to carve out more wiggle room to carry on emitting, the Commission’s roster of climate goals risks fuelling diplomatic battles across Europe.
2040 climate target
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Emissions trading system (ETS)
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Carbon removals (CDR)
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CO2 emissions
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Emissions reduction
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Clean industrial deal
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Russian fuels
EU Russian gas ban: political impetus hits legal reality EU Russian gas ban: political impetus hits legal reality
Tomas Ragina/iStock
In depth

EU Russian gas ban: political impetus hits legal reality

On 17 June, the European Commission proposed its boldest move yet to cut ties with Russian gas: a complete import ban by 2028. But behind the strong political message lie serious legal and financial risks, with billions in compensation potentially at stake and arbitration cases looming.
Russian gas ban: Danish energy minister pursues autumn Council deal Russian gas ban: Danish energy minister pursues autumn Council deal
European Union, 2025
Interview

Russian gas ban: Danish energy minister pursues autumn Council deal

How the EU ban on Russian gas imports will work How the EU ban on Russian gas imports will work
Anton Zubchevskyi/iStock
In depth

How the EU ban on Russian gas imports will work

Russian fuels
EU Gas grid operators should factor Russian fuel phase-out into upcoming projections, ACER says
EU Slovakia fails to lift veto on Russian energy sanctions, despite Brussels’ monitoring group pledge
EU·RUS Russian gas ban: January 2026 cutoff date for new contracts called into question in Council redraft
EU·RUS MEPs Francisco Assis and Thomas Pellerin-Carlin to speak for centre-left on Russian gas ban
EU·RUS Danish Council presidency plans first tweaks to Russian gas ban by end of week, sources say
In depth

EU Russian gas ban: political impetus hits legal reality

EU Finnish Green Ville Niinistö is ITRE rapporteur on Russian gas imports ban, Contexte learns
EU·RUS EU postpones vote to sanction Nord Stream gas pipelines, lower Russian oil price cap
EU·RUS EU leaders agree on Russia sanctions text, but Slovakia still threatens veto, citing gas concerns
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Édition · FR
La couverture des politiques publiques françaises et européennes ayant un impact en France
Découvrez l’Édition FR
Article à la Une
L’industrie du tabac passe par la norme pour convaincre de l’intérêt des sachets de nicotine L’industrie du tabac passe par la norme pour convaincre de l’intérêt des sachets de nicotine
© Jérémie Luciani pour Contexte
Enquête

L’industrie du tabac passe par la norme pour convaincre de l’intérêt des sachets de nicotine

Tabac
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Lobbying
L’industrie du tabac passe par la norme pour convaincre de l’intérêt des sachets de nicotine L’industrie du tabac passe par la norme pour convaincre de l’intérêt des sachets de nicotine
© Jérémie Luciani pour Contexte
Enquête

L’industrie du tabac passe par la norme pour convaincre de l’intérêt des sachets de nicotine

Tabac
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Lobbying
L’industrie du tabac passe par la norme pour convaincre de l’intérêt des sachets de nicotine L’industrie du tabac passe par la norme pour convaincre de l’intérêt des sachets de nicotine
© Jérémie Luciani pour Contexte
Enquête

L’industrie du tabac passe par la norme pour convaincre de l’intérêt des sachets de nicotine

Sujets à la Une
Tabac Vie de l'Assemblée nationale (XVIIe législature) Simplification législative et administrative Politique environnementale Certificats d'économies d'énergie (CEE) Régulation des contenus sur Internet
Découvrez l’Édition FR
Competition - Energy
The EU’s clean industrial subsidy framework leaves room for gas The EU’s clean industrial subsidy framework leaves room for gas
Wirestock/iStock

The EU’s clean industrial subsidy framework leaves room for gas

The European Commission released its highly anticipated subsidy framework on 25 June, setting out how EU state aid can be dished out for the next five years. The clean industrial state aid framework, a key plank of decarbonisation goals, covers everything from nuclear, to clean technology manufacturing, to de-risking private investments in energy infrastructure. Perhaps most controversially, it allows public subsidies to go to a fossil fuel, albeit setting a 2040 phase-out date.
Competition - Energy
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Natural gas
The EU’s clean industrial subsidy framework leaves room for gas The EU’s clean industrial subsidy framework leaves room for gas
Wirestock/iStock

The EU’s clean industrial subsidy framework leaves room for gas

The European Commission released its highly anticipated subsidy framework on 25 June, setting out how EU state aid can be dished out for the next five years. The clean industrial state aid framework, a key plank of decarbonisation goals, covers everything from nuclear, to clean technology manufacturing, to de-risking private investments in energy infrastructure. Perhaps most controversially, it allows public subsidies to go to a fossil fuel, albeit setting a 2040 phase-out date.
Competition - Energy
EU Commission approves joint acquisition of Greenlink interconnector by Equitix, Baltic Cable
CZ EDF drops legal challenge over €16.5bn Czech nuclear tender
DE State aid: German business cautiously welcomes Brussels’ attempt to cater to Berlin’s electricity price pledge
EU State aid rules seek to boost energy demand flexibility, alongside first-time support for nuclear

The EU’s clean industrial subsidy framework leaves room for gas

EU New draft of EU state aid rules ‘leaves an open door’ to support gas projects, ClientEarth warns
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EU
Natural gas
EU to phase out Russian gas contracts in three stages, sources say EU to phase out Russian gas contracts in three stages, sources say
European Union

EU to phase out Russian gas contracts in three stages, sources say

Signing new Russian gas contracts and providing long-term services to Russian entities from EU LNG terminals will be prohibited from 1 January 2026 under proposed trade measures, Contexte has learned from several sources familiar with the matter. Short‑term contracts may remain in force until mid‑2026, and long‑term agreements until 1 January 2028. Hungary and Slovakia have signalled they will strongly oppose the regulation.
Natural gas
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Liquefied natural gas (LNG)
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Russian fuels
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Fossil fuels
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Energy security
EU to phase out Russian gas contracts in three stages, sources say EU to phase out Russian gas contracts in three stages, sources say
European Union

EU to phase out Russian gas contracts in three stages, sources say

Signing new Russian gas contracts and providing long-term services to Russian entities from EU LNG terminals will be prohibited from 1 January 2026 under proposed trade measures, Contexte has learned from several sources familiar with the matter. Short‑term contracts may remain in force until mid‑2026, and long‑term agreements until 1 January 2028. Hungary and Slovakia have signalled they will strongly oppose the regulation.
Natural gas
PL Poland’s renewables likely outpaced coal plants for the first time
EU EU gas demand rises again, after years-long decline
EU Gas grid operators should factor Russian fuel phase-out into upcoming projections, ACER says
EU Legislation to define low-carbon hydrogen expected 8 July; nuclear methodology by end-2026
EU Slovakia fails to lift veto on Russian energy sanctions, despite Brussels’ monitoring group pledge
EU·RUS Russian gas ban: January 2026 cutoff date for new contracts called into question in Council redraft
Show more
Who’s who

The EU Commission cabinet staff to watch on energy issues

Who are the key personnel steering climate and energy policy in Brussels’ corridors of power? Behind each top official at the European Commission sits a host of cabinet staff, supporting Commissioners in their daily work. From heads of cabinet to expert advisors, this directory gathers staff from the private offices of Commissioners most focused on energy-related issues.
Who’s who

The EU Commission cabinet staff to watch on energy issues

Who are the key personnel steering climate and energy policy in Brussels’ corridors of power? Behind each top official at the European Commission sits a host of cabinet staff, supporting Commissioners in their daily work. From heads of cabinet to expert advisors, this directory gathers staff from the private offices of Commissioners most focused on energy-related issues.
Nuclear power
Divisive no longer? NuclearEurope pushes for a bigger role in Brussels Divisive no longer? NuclearEurope pushes for a bigger role in Brussels
JÉRÉMIE LUCIANI-CONTEXTE

Divisive no longer? NuclearEurope pushes for a bigger role in Brussels

Long confined to the margins of EU energy policy, the nuclear industry is trying to find its voice in Brussels. Trade association NuclearEurope is under pressure from its members to raise its profile, modernise its lobbying, and step out of France’s shadow — but overcoming scepticism remains an uphill battle.
Dukovany: How a Czech nuclear plant sparked a diplomatic incident Dukovany: How a Czech nuclear plant sparked a diplomatic incident
Artush/iStock

Dukovany: How a Czech nuclear plant sparked a diplomatic incident

A multi-billion-euro deal to build two nuclear reactors in southern Czechia, frozen by a Brno court after South Korea’s KHNP outbid EDF, is having significant political consequences. Czech ministers have accused the French state-owned energy company of meddling in their domestic politics in an election year; the involvement as an EU arbiter of Stéphane Séjourné, France’s commissioner in Brussels, has obliged him to deny accusations of national bias. The prospect of an escalating row with Prague has led even some officials in Paris to think the affair might have gone too far, and that EDF might end up being asked to rein itself in.
Nuclear power
EU Legislation to define low-carbon hydrogen expected 8 July; nuclear methodology by end-2026
EU·RUS EU prepares to join new nuclear R&D international framework excluding Russia
EU EU coal production and consumption hit historic lows, as renewables, nuclear grow
EU Leak: Commission’s Competitiveness Fund budget plans due 16 July, nuclear issues on 17 September
EU EU countries cautiously welcome 2040 climate target, but want to see the small print
EU·FR 2040 target: Commission’s proposed change to EU climate law makes room for nuclear
EU Nuclear energy could make its way into the 2040 climate target package, says MEP Pascal Canfin
CZ EDF drops legal challenge over €16.5bn Czech nuclear tender
EU Leak – MEP gathers signatures to challenge ‘restrictive and unworkable’ low-carbon hydrogen rules
EU State aid rules seek to boost energy demand flexibility, alongside first-time support for nuclear
EU Euratom research gets €600m funding for next two years
FR Leak – Commission guidelines to ease state aid for clean industry hold a place for nuclear
Show more
Ukraine war
Why energy infrastructure matters for Ukraine’s war, and its peace Why energy infrastructure matters for Ukraine’s war, and its peace
Dmytro Smolienko/Ukrinform/SIPA

Why energy infrastructure matters for Ukraine’s war, and its peace

Ukraine’s energy network, which includes Europe’s biggest nuclear power plant and largest gas storage system, has played a significant role since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022. With major assets destroyed or captured, tens of billions in investment needed, and outsiders seeking access to lucrative oil and critical minerals, it could end up key to the country’s future.
Ukraine war
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Russia
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Russian fuels
Why energy infrastructure matters for Ukraine’s war, and its peace Why energy infrastructure matters for Ukraine’s war, and its peace
Dmytro Smolienko/Ukrinform/SIPA

Why energy infrastructure matters for Ukraine’s war, and its peace

Ukraine’s energy network, which includes Europe’s biggest nuclear power plant and largest gas storage system, has played a significant role since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022. With major assets destroyed or captured, tens of billions in investment needed, and outsiders seeking access to lucrative oil and critical minerals, it could end up key to the country’s future.
Ukraine war

Why energy infrastructure matters for Ukraine’s war, and its peace

RUS·HU·SK Hungary and Slovakia have made ‘little effort’ to stop importing Russian energy since 2022 Ukraine invasion, study says
UKR·US US reaches deal with Ukraine on access to minerals, oil and gas
Show more
EU climate law
Fit for 54: EU says it’s on track for 2030 climate target Fit for 54: EU says it’s on track for 2030 climate target
EUROPEAN UNION 2025

Fit for 54: EU says it’s on track for 2030 climate target

The European Commission’s analysis of National Energy and Climate Plans puts the bloc within a whisker of its goal to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030. The figures are an improvement on a previous December 2023 assessment — but the rosy headline masks significant shortfalls in areas such as transport, buildings and energy efficiency.
EU climate law
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Renewables
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Electricity
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Energy networks
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Greenhouse gases
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Energy security
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Climate change
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CO2 emissions
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Fossil fuels
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Solar power
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Energy policy
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Electricity markets
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Energy consumption
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Energy efficiency
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Emissions reduction
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Energy union
Fit for 54: EU says it’s on track for 2030 climate target Fit for 54: EU says it’s on track for 2030 climate target
EUROPEAN UNION 2025

Fit for 54: EU says it’s on track for 2030 climate target

The European Commission’s analysis of National Energy and Climate Plans puts the bloc within a whisker of its goal to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030. The figures are an improvement on a previous December 2023 assessment — but the rosy headline masks significant shortfalls in areas such as transport, buildings and energy efficiency.
EU climate law
EU Commission to set share of international credits counting towards 2040 target at three percentage points, MEP says
EU Incoming Danish Council presidency aiming for 18 September deal on 2040 climate target, sources say
EU Leak – COP30: Polish Council presidency pitches three options for setting 2035 climate target
EU Carbon removal technology ‘central’ to achieving EU climate targets for 2040, 2050, Commission official says
EU Commission advisory body warns against using international carbon credits in 2040 climate goals
EU 2040 climate target proposal expected on 2 July
Show more
Brussels doesn’t want the sun to set on solar production Brussels doesn’t want the sun to set on solar production
Douglas Rissing/iStock

Brussels doesn’t want the sun to set on solar production

Legal plans published on 23 May are part of Brussels’ ‘European preference’ strategy to strengthen domestic solar panel makers who face tough Chinese competition. After tariffs failed, and without major subsidies on offer, sceptics wonder if that approach might prove too little, too late to save an ailing European industry.
Brussels doesn’t want the sun to set on solar production Brussels doesn’t want the sun to set on solar production
Douglas Rissing/iStock

Brussels doesn’t want the sun to set on solar production

Legal plans published on 23 May are part of Brussels’ ‘European preference’ strategy to strengthen domestic solar panel makers who face tough Chinese competition. After tariffs failed, and without major subsidies on offer, sceptics wonder if that approach might prove too little, too late to save an ailing European industry.
Renewables
Who’s ahead, who’s behind: EU member states’ progress on renewables Who’s ahead, who’s behind: EU member states’ progress on renewables
© Floriana/iStock
Infographic

Who’s ahead, who’s behind: EU member states’ progress on renewables

With the exception of three laggards – Belgium, Estonia and Poland – all EU members have now submitted plans setting out how they will contribute to the EU’s 2030 energy and climate targets. The European Commission is expected to publish its review of them within weeks. Contexte offers a sneak peek into how the bloc’s biggest energy consumers are faring in the race to decarbonise, cut greenhouse emissions and future-proof their energy sectors.
Renewables
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Nuclear power
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Biomass
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Greenhouse gases
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Electricity
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Natural gas
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Russian fuels
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Low-carbon hydrogen
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Hydrogen
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Climate change
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Solar power
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Biofuels
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Fossil fuels
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CO2 emissions
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Climate adaptation
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Emissions reduction
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Energy consumption
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Energy policy
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Heating and cooling
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Wind energy
Who’s ahead, who’s behind: EU member states’ progress on renewables Who’s ahead, who’s behind: EU member states’ progress on renewables
© Floriana/iStock
Infographic

Who’s ahead, who’s behind: EU member states’ progress on renewables

With the exception of three laggards – Belgium, Estonia and Poland – all EU members have now submitted plans setting out how they will contribute to the EU’s 2030 energy and climate targets. The European Commission is expected to publish its review of them within weeks. Contexte offers a sneak peek into how the bloc’s biggest energy consumers are faring in the race to decarbonise, cut greenhouse emissions and future-proof their energy sectors.
Renewables
PL Poland’s renewables likely outpaced coal plants for the first time
EU Christian Kjaer, former WindEurope CEO, takes the helm of new EU ‘supergrid’ lobby
EU EU coal production and consumption hit historic lows, as renewables, nuclear grow
EU EU modernisation fund allocates €3.66 billion to energy transition projects in central, eastern Europe
EU EU countries cautiously welcome 2040 climate target, but want to see the small print
EU Commission proposes including agrivoltaics, infrastructure-integrated solar, floating solar, plug-in mini solar, floating offshore wind, ocean energy in 5% target for ‘innovative renewables’
Show more
Low-carbon hydrogen
Low-carbon hydrogen: how a marginal energy source became an explosive political battle Low-carbon hydrogen: how a marginal energy source became an explosive political battle
iStock

Low-carbon hydrogen: how a marginal energy source became an explosive political battle

The European Commission’s draft definition of low-carbon hydrogen is being presented to national experts on 19 May. The seemingly dry dossier has prompted significant concerns from the EU’s most powerful member states, and attention from the highest political level. Contexte outlines how a technical argument over secondary legislation has reignited a much more fiery dispute over national energy mixes.
Low-carbon hydrogen
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Hydrogen
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Natural gas
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Nuclear power
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Greenhouse gases
Low-carbon hydrogen: how a marginal energy source became an explosive political battle Low-carbon hydrogen: how a marginal energy source became an explosive political battle
iStock

Low-carbon hydrogen: how a marginal energy source became an explosive political battle

The European Commission’s draft definition of low-carbon hydrogen is being presented to national experts on 19 May. The seemingly dry dossier has prompted significant concerns from the EU’s most powerful member states, and attention from the highest political level. Contexte outlines how a technical argument over secondary legislation has reignited a much more fiery dispute over national energy mixes.
Low-carbon hydrogen
EU Legislation to define low-carbon hydrogen expected 8 July; nuclear methodology by end-2026
EU 55 MEPs urge Commission to revise ‘unworkable’ low carbon hydrogen rules
EU Leak – MEP gathers signatures to challenge ‘restrictive and unworkable’ low-carbon hydrogen rules
EU Industry coalition raises new ’alarm’ over upcoming EU low-carbon hydrogen definition
FR Leak – Commission guidelines to ease state aid for clean industry hold a place for nuclear
EU European Parliament resolution on clean industrial deal calls for ‘flexibility strategy’ in energy systems
Show more
Von der Leyen 2 Commission
Commissioner Jørgensen promises to simplify EU energy law through sweeping 'omnibus' plan Commissioner Jørgensen promises to simplify EU energy law through sweeping 'omnibus' plan
© jotily/iStock
Scoop

Commissioner Jørgensen promises to simplify EU energy law through sweeping 'omnibus' plan

Brussels will review a swathe of legislation as it seeks to speed up renewable energy permits — an audit extending into sensitive laws designed to protect birds and natural habitats, the European Commission’s top energy official told Contexte. EU energy policy is too often prone to division, but a shifting geopolitical reality should prompt the EU to show unity, Dan Jørgensen said in an interview.
Von der Leyen 2 Commission
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Energy omnibus
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EU-US relations
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Russian fuels
Commissioner Jørgensen promises to simplify EU energy law through sweeping 'omnibus' plan Commissioner Jørgensen promises to simplify EU energy law through sweeping 'omnibus' plan
© jotily/iStock
Scoop

Commissioner Jørgensen promises to simplify EU energy law through sweeping 'omnibus' plan

Brussels will review a swathe of legislation as it seeks to speed up renewable energy permits — an audit extending into sensitive laws designed to protect birds and natural habitats, the European Commission’s top energy official told Contexte. EU energy policy is too often prone to division, but a shifting geopolitical reality should prompt the EU to show unity, Dan Jørgensen said in an interview.
Von der Leyen 2 Commission
Interview

Dan Jørgensen announces an energy omnibus: ‘I'm aware this can be seen as controversial’

Scoop

Commissioner Jørgensen promises to simplify EU energy law through sweeping 'omnibus' plan

Show more
Liquefied natural gas (LNG)
Dan Jørgensen announces an energy omnibus: ‘I'm aware this can be seen as controversial’ Dan Jørgensen announces an energy omnibus: ‘I'm aware this can be seen as controversial’
© Christophe Licoppe/European Union
Interview

Dan Jørgensen announces an energy omnibus: ‘I'm aware this can be seen as controversial’

As Europe works to reconcile energy security with its climate goals, Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen told Contexte of the tightrope he is walking. In a wide-ranging interview, he defends US LNG imports as a pragmatic necessity, rejects criticism of EU methane rules, and outlines an upcoming “energy omnibus” to slash permitting delays for renewables. He also responds to industry calls for deeper nuclear engagement.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG)
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Russian fuels
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EU-US relations
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Energy omnibus
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Von der Leyen 2 Commission
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Nuclear power
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2040 climate target
Dan Jørgensen announces an energy omnibus: ‘I'm aware this can be seen as controversial’ Dan Jørgensen announces an energy omnibus: ‘I'm aware this can be seen as controversial’
© Christophe Licoppe/European Union
Interview

Dan Jørgensen announces an energy omnibus: ‘I'm aware this can be seen as controversial’

As Europe works to reconcile energy security with its climate goals, Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen told Contexte of the tightrope he is walking. In a wide-ranging interview, he defends US LNG imports as a pragmatic necessity, rejects criticism of EU methane rules, and outlines an upcoming “energy omnibus” to slash permitting delays for renewables. He also responds to industry calls for deeper nuclear engagement.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG)
EU Gas grid operators should factor Russian fuel phase-out into upcoming projections, ACER says
In depth

EU Russian gas ban: political impetus hits legal reality

In depth

How the EU ban on Russian gas imports will work

EU to phase out Russian gas contracts in three stages, sources say

EU Central, Eastern European countries reposition themselves as LNG end users amid shifting gas flows, report says
EU EU LNG demand could rise 30 bcm by 2030 , says ACER
Show more
Commission, Parliament, Council: who holds the power in EU institutions? Commission, Parliament, Council: who holds the power in EU institutions?
DR
Infographic

Commission, Parliament, Council: who holds the power in EU institutions?

Understanding the EU requires knowing how to navigate its political landscape. The European elections in 2024 took place during a period of significant economic and geopolitical turmoil — and it showed at the ballot box. Brussels' traditional centre-right leadership was knocked further off-balance; previously shunned, the EU's extremist voices now hold more power — which they are eagerly using to influence the bloc's agenda.
Commission, Parliament, Council: who holds the power in EU institutions? Commission, Parliament, Council: who holds the power in EU institutions?
DR
Infographic

Commission, Parliament, Council: who holds the power in EU institutions?

Understanding the EU requires knowing how to navigate its political landscape. The European elections in 2024 took place during a period of significant economic and geopolitical turmoil — and it showed at the ballot box. Brussels' traditional centre-right leadership was knocked further off-balance; previously shunned, the EU's extremist voices now hold more power — which they are eagerly using to influence the bloc's agenda.

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